SE Michael Thomas ~ His current ADP is about 6th, mid 1st Round, the 1st Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. SuperBeast in his prime. Pay the man!
FB DaVante Adams ~ His current ADP is about 8th, mid 1st Round, the 2nd Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. Adams is a Star in his prime.
FB Tyreek Hill ~ His ADP is currently 11th, end of the 1st Round, 2nd Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. Hill had a rough year, but should be back to form in 2020, and he is freakishly productive, when healthy.
SE Julio Jones ~ His current ADP is about 12th, late 1st Round, the 4th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. A SuperStar in his prime, one'f the best ever to play!
SE DeAndre Hopkins ~ His current ADP is about 16th, early 2nd Round, the 5th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. There's a lot of concern about Hopkins prospectively garnering significantly less Market Share than he did on Planet Hoosten, due to being new to the System, and having a short off-season, but I believe that he'll overcome that. Hopkins is demonstrably the Alpha WideOut in Arizona, and the reason that he's one of the greatest to ever play the position is his sensational Route Running, which translates in any System, and quickly. There is some risk involved because of what prospectively could be a horrible Offensive Line, but Hopkins is the last guy that I'm worried about!
FB Christopher Godwin ~ His current ADP is about 20th, mid 2nd Round, the 6th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. An ascending Star. Right place. Right time.
SE Kenny Golladay ~ His current ADP is about 24th, late 2nd Round, the 7th Ranked WideOut.
Blue Chip Beast Bargain! Golladay finished 3rd, last year, despite having Stafford for only half the year! A beloved SuperBinky of mine when he got drafted, Golladay is a Star in his prime, one who should consistently finish Top 10 if he's healthy. I would estimate'm to be about the 4th or 5th best Bet in 2020, putting his Value in the early 2nd Round, possibly late 1st.
SE Michael Evans ~ His current ADP is about 26th, early 3rd Round, the 8th Ranked WideOut.
Sell!! Mind you, Michael Evans is a SuperStar in his prime, and I'm a huge Fan. But he's always been a big bear who hacks and grinds his way to glory, not a Route Runner. The Great One prefers Route Runners. I have no doubt that they'll work it out, because both'f'm are hard-working warriors, but their styles don't strike me as especially sympatico. Just my take.
FB Amari Cooper ~ His current ADP is about 27th, early 3rd Round, the 9th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. Cooper is a Star in his prime, worth every penny. Lamb is getting a lot of hype, but not only do I strongly suspect that he'll considerably less Market Share than is generally expected, I believe that this Offense is poised to expand. Now that the previous Coach's catatonic approach is a thing of the past, fresh life comes to Dallas. Cooper'll get his, I think.
SE Arthur Juan Brown ~ His ADP is currently about #33, late 3rd Round, the 12th Ranked WideOut.
Sleeper!! So let me get this right: Brown finishes 9th, does so as a Rookie, does so as a guy who didn't even Start until the season was well under way...and The Market projects'm to slide to 12th or 13th?? Uh uh. I get the whole Reversion to the Mean thing, and how Brown's preposterous 20 YPC is unsustainable...But this is where The Market misses the mark.
Brown is an outlier. My study of History tells me that, while that 20 YPC surely is unsustainable, Brown's late-season rampage, where he average over 100 Yards/Game over the last 6 weeks, with 5 TouchDowns during that time, is a legitimate indicator of what to expect of'm, going forward. He was a Rookie, Ladies & Laddies. He will evolve, rapidly. Targets will compensate for a more rational YPC number. Running Offense or not, Brown is already producing like the SuperStar that everyone smart enough to see it is going to be calling him, very, very soon. Brown has genuine and immediate Top 5 potential, 1350/14 kind of potential, yes, even in that Offense. Early 2nd Round.
FB Adam Thielen ~ His current ADP is about 35th, late 3rd Round, the 12th Ranked WideOut.
Blue Chip Beast Bargain! I'm expecting a full return to Thielen's former form, which translates to Top 10, and possibly far better, now that they've got a new Offense getting installed that I'm a huge Fan of! I'd put his value as very early 3rd Round.
XB Julian Edelman ~ His ADP is about 36th or so, mid-8th Round.
Par Value. The Greatest SlotBack Off All Time ~ sorry, Welsey Welker! ~ just turned 34, and should slow down really soon, but these things generally don't happen precipitously, and Edelman's Ranking is right in the middle, tucked in with a number of Players who also project to be consistently productive. In Fantasy terms, that's just about right.
FB Cooper Kupp ~ His current ADP is about 37th, early 4th Round, the 14th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. My MegaBinky is a Star in his prime.
SE Allen Robinson ~ His current ADP is about 38th, early 4th Round, the 15th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. Robinson is a Stud in his prime, who finished 12th, last year, and who gets tons of Targets, but I have no problem with The Market giving'm a slight downgrade, as the Offensive Line might take a step back, this year.
XB Eugene Hilton ~ His ADP is currently about 39th, early 4th Round, the 15th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. Seriously, who names their kid "Eugene"?? That's almost as contemptible as naming him after yourself, as so many narcissists like to do. Anyway, "Thank You" ~ I don't abide Initials ~ is poised to rebound dramatically, after a year plagued by injury and Jacoby Brissett. No offense, Mister Brissett, no offense! See what I did, there??
SE Denniston Moore ~ His current ADP is about 39th, early 4th Round, the 16th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. Moore is an ascending SuperStar, and a perfect fit for this Offense. I'm applying a Discount for the team's transition on short time, otherwise would pound the table on this guy on this team. Eruption coming...very soon.
SE Keenan Allen ~ His ADP is currently 44th, late 4th Round, the #18 Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. I'm impressed, I must say, by the sophistication of The Market. I was all ready to break out the red ink, despite Allen being one of my all-time favorite Draft finds, as he finished 11th, last year, and has been astonishingly consistent over the last 3 years. But The Market discounted'm, exactly as I would've, presumably because of the transitional situation at QuarterBack, combined with the transitional situation on the Offensive Line. The late 4th Round is spot on!
FB Calvin Ridley ~ His current ADP is about 44th, mid 4th Round, the 17th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. A Rising Star, entering his prime.
XB Tyler Lockett ~ His current ADP is about 48th, late 4th Round, the 18th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. Lockett has emerged as a Stud in his prime!
FB Stefon Diggs ~ His ADP is about #50 or so, right at the beginning of the 5th Round.
Par Value. It looks like The Market is being realistic about expectations for His Majesty, here. Allen is still an unproven commodity, right now, and if he gets benched for Jake Fromm, they'll be exchanging the Gunslinger for the Pop Gun, not especially conducive to Diggs's statistical success. Mind you, that Offensive Line has a chance to be dominant, and if young Allen figures it all out and starts performing at a competent level, Diggs could have a spectacular year!
SE Ariel Green ~ His ADP is currently about 50th, middle of the 5th Round, the 23rd Ranked WideOut.
SemiSleeper! Green is finally expected to return, after missing 1.5 seasons due to injury. There is risk of rust, so I'll back my evaluation off a Round, but I fully expect him to be back at his former form, which was stellar ~ though possibly exhibiting some early rust ~ and to do so with an Offensive Guru and potential Greatness at QuarterBack bodes extraordinarily well for his production. I foresee'm pushing the Top 10, and worth a 4th Rounder, if not a 3rd.
SE DeKaylin Metcalf ~ His current ADP is about 54th, mid 6th Round, the 22nd Ranked WideOut.
SemiSleeper! I underrated Metcalf considerably, a year ago. He has all the SuperStar potential that his athletic metrics indicated, as it turns out, and I believe is poised to explode in his Sophomore campaign! I foresee'm pushing a Top 10 finish, and would rank'm about 15th, overall, which would translate to the late 3rd or early 4th Round, held back only by Pete Carroll!
FB JuJu Smith Schuster ~ His ADP is currently about 55th, middle of the 5th Round, the 24th Ranked WideOut.
Sleeper! Everybody knows that he had a horrific 2019 campaign, and that there is some uncertainty about Roethlisberger returning to full form in 2020, so there is risk, here, as well. But the prevailing theme that I keep reading is that he can't hack it as the #1, now that Antonio Brown's in the wind. That appeared to be the case, after Roethlisberger went down during Week 2, but Schuster was highly productive before he got hurt, Week 4, racking up 80 Yards/Game.
With Roethlisberger's expected return, probably, though by no means definitely, to his previous form, or even with Mason Rudolph stepping in, if needs be, I expect Schuster, who's 2020 playing for his 2nd contract, to enjoy an enormous comeback season. I project his production to land him in the Top 15, catapulting his value to the 3rd Round!
FB Robert Woods ~ His current ADP is about 55th, mid 5th Round, the 21st Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. Star in his prime.
ZB Marquise Brown ~ His ADP is currently about 56th, late in the 5th Round.
Par Value. That ranks him about 25th among WideOuts, which is about the 1000 Yard threshold. That sounds about right to me, as Brown has spectacular potential, but also carries a lot of risk, due to being pea-sized!
SE Darrell Chark ~ His ADP is currently about #60, late 5th Round, the 25th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. Chark surprised the Hell out'f me ~ I gave'm a 4th Round Grade ~ by racking up 1000/8 and finishing 16th, last year. The Market is clearly expecting a slide or accounting for the risk of a new Coach and a new Offense, and which I consider appropriate, both because I'll trust Chark only when he does it again, and because I expect him to lose considerable Market Share on Red Zone Targets to Eifert and Oliver, neither'f whom were around, last year.
FB Terry McLaurin ~ His ADP is currently about #63, early 6th Round, the 26th Ranked WideOut.
Sleeper! McLaurin had an exceptional Rookie campaign, despite a bad situation, finishing 24th, and I see plenty of reason, considering that he's the indisputable #1 WideOut in Washington, to expect a strong step forward, this year. Even a moderate improvement to 75/1080/8 or so would translate into about 15th or so, warranting an early 4th Round Pick.
FB Jarvis Landry ~ His ADP is currently about 67th, middle of the 6th Round, 29th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. That calls for a slide from his #14 finish, last year, but that seems appropriate, as Landry's timeline, recovering from surgery, is just about Opening Day, which translates into a slow start to the season.
XB Brandin Cooks ~ His ADP is currently about 69th, middle of the 6th Round, the 29th Ranked WideOut.
Sell!! I'm no Fan of Cooks, either as a FootBall Player or as a teammate, but I wouldn't hesitate to pound the table on'm, if I saw value. However, I believe that Cooks, despite being reliable for several years, is a mounting and substantial concussion risk, and his production declined precipitously, last year. Opportunity will abound, in Planet Hoosten's Offensive scheme, with Hopkins having flown the coop, and if Cooks proves to be healthy and regains his formerly explosive form, he might be a bargain. But I don't believe that his Market Value sufficiently accounts either for the remarkably crowded Receiver room on Planet Hoosten ~ even with Hopkins and his 150 Targets gone ~ or for the chances of his sustaining a season-ending concussion, or, furthermore, for the possibility that his production's spectacular decline in 2019 was a sign that his small Frame is simply and permanently worn out.
FB Odell Beckham ~ His ADP is currently about 70th, late 6th Round, 30th Ranked WideOut.
Super Dooper Deeper Sleeper!!! Wow, how is Odell Beckham going 30th?? Well, I can actually answer that, of course. He hasn't done much more than 1000 Yards in 3 years, now, which is raising questions about whether or not he ever will again, Mayfield had a horrible year, and the BrownStones have been awful. Also, Beckham's been hurt. But my take on things is that he's gonna be 100%, the Stones are poised for a tremendous campaign, and Beckham ~ who I am no particular Fan of, mind you ~ is hungry to start racking up the accolades he used to receive. I'm thinking that it's very possible that Beckham rockets all the way back to the Top 5, even the very top, this year. I say that he's worth a 2nd Rounder, and that if he actually sinks to the 6th Round, whoever gets'm may very well have the Steal of the Year!
FB Michel Gallup ~ His current ADP is about 72nd, late 6th Round, the 31st Ranked WideOut.
Sleeper! Gallup finished 20th, last year, in his breakout Sophomore campaign, so The Market clearly believes that the drafting of Lamb will not only bleed off Gallup's ascension, but reverse it! I think that that's a mistake. Lamb is a raw Route Runner who quite possibly will attract a far lesser Market Share as a Rookie than virtually everyone seems to believe, I believe. A repeat, more'r less, of last year's success ~ and, therefore, about a 20th place finish, once again ~ seems to me to be a justifiable estimate of Gallup's projection, which would translate to about the 50th pick or so, approximately the early 5th Round.
SE DeVante Parker ~ His ADP is currently about 75th or so, early 7th Round.
Par Value. Much to my admiring surprise, The Market currently has only moderate expectations of Parker. Considering that it took 598 false starts before he finally emerged in his 5th year, and considering that the Fish are breaking in virtually an entire Offensive Line and almost certainly a QuarterBack, I'd say that a little caution is warranted! Hah!
SE Courtland Sutton ~ His ADP is currently about 77th, projecting to the 7th Pick in the 7th Round! 33rd Ranked.
Super Dooper Deeper Sleeper!! 7th Round?? Are you kidding me?? Sutton is a rapidly ascending Star, and while Lock is admittedly an uncertain commodity, I'm thinking that 1000 Yards is Sutton's reasonable downside, while he could absolutely rack up 1400! There's Top 5 potential, and I certainly consider'm Top 10. 2nd Round value, baby!
XE Deebo Samuel ~ His current ADP is about 84th, late 7th Round, the 34th Ranked WideOut.
Sell!! Samuel's banged up, and ankle injuries linger. Late Round Flier, only!
FB Will Fuller ~ His ADP is currently about 87th, early 8th Round, the 34th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. Unlike Cooks, there's no doubt that Fuller still has the capacity to substantially outperform his ADP. But, once again unlike Cooks, Fuller has been notoriously unreliable, missing 20 of the last 48 Games, over the last 3 years. The Market seems to be projecting him based on his recent Production Per Game, and applying a Health Discount. He's a potential 1000 Yard guy ~ even 1200 Yards ~ if he can ever stay on the Field, so 8th Round seems about right to me.
FB Tyler Boyd ~ His ADP is currently about 88th, early 8th Round, the 35th Ranked WideOut.
Sleeper! Full disclosure: I'm a huge Fan of Boyd, and always have been. But he has established himself as a steady 1000 Yard guy, which should place him about 25th, which is late 5th Round/early 6th Round territory. Perhaps The Market's thinking that the return of Mister Green will be detrimental, or the introduction of a rookie QuarterBack? Those're valid arguments, if so, but I'm thinking that Boyd will make his money, regardless. And his skill set is especially suited to accommodate Burrow's style. Green will take a big chunk of Market Share, but he'll also open things up for Boyd. Furthermore, I suspect that this Offense will expand so robustly that there'll be plenty of Ball to go around!
FB Marvin Jones ~ His current ADP is about 88th, early 8th Round, the 36th Ranked WideOut.
SemiSleeper. I've always been a big Fan of Jones, and he was having a terrific year before Stafford got hurt, getting hurt, himself, in December, and finishing 27th. Early 6th Round Value, I'm thinking: Top 20-25 Bet, I'd say.
XB Mecole Hardman ~ His ADP is currently about 90th, middle of the 8th Round, 37th Ranked WideOut.
SemiSleeper. The man with the horrifically ugly name is freakishly gifted, his hitherto raw Game is rapidly coming together, and he's about to hit his Sophomore year with a fully healthy Patrick Mahomes. Not to get carried away, but I place'm as about the 25th best WideOut Bet, with a very good shot at 1000 Yards, which would translate to the 5th Round.
FB John Brown ~ His ADP is about #93 or so, the back end of the 8th Round.
Par Value. Yeah, that sounds about right. My SuperBinky gets bumped down from #1 to his more natural #2 gig, and while that Offensive Line might enable Allen to keep his job, Brown is likely to lose Market Share not only to Diggs, but to Knox, as well. Mind you, he might well benefit, to Diggs's detriment, if Allen gets benched for Fromm, a distinct possibility.
FB Cederian Lamb ~ His current ADP is about 96th, late 8th Round, the 38th Ranked WideOut.
Overrated! Nothing against Lamb, and he may very well ascend into the prominent role that virtually everyone seem to expect of him, this year, but I say that his Route Running is raw, and that it's therefore likely that his Rookie campaign will produce a few growing pains, and sporadic production. I think he's a risky Bet to make, this year, and should be a Late Round Flier.
FB Manny Sanders ~ His current ADP is about 99th, early 9th Round, the 39th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. Yeah, 39th is just about right. Sanders has proven to be remarkably resilient, at 32, recovering from a 2018 ACL injury, and should be even better, this year, even while fighting off the ravages of Age! He could even push 1000 Yards.
XB Christian Kirk ~ His current ADP is about 100th, early 9th Round, the 40th Ranked WideOut.
SemiSleeper. Despite Hopkins coming to town to take the Alpha role, Kirk is poised for a 3rd Year Breakout, and his Game gels perfectly with the quick strike nature of The Air Raid. Furthermore, my feeling is that, despite a shaky and potentially horrible Offensive Line, the Line's prospective weakness is largely neutralized by that quick strike nature of the Offense, and, yet furthemore, I sense that there'll be even more Targets to go around, this year! I see Kirk as being a good Bet to assault the mystical 1000 Yard mark, finishing around 30th, or so, and therefore warranting a late 6th or early 7th Round Pick!
SE Michael Williams ~ His ADP is currently 108th, late 9th Round, the #44 Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. Here, too, The Market exhibits its wisdom, by also discounting Williams, who finished 37th, last year. Williams is rapidly ascending to Stardom, so you could argue that he shouldn't be discounted, but he's actually more risky than Allen, being more of a downfield, feast or famine type, headed into a year of transition both at QuarterBack and the Offensive Line, and, furthermore, looking at the likelihood that that QuarterBack is at least initially likely to be Taylor, a natural leader who, nevertheless, isn't exactly renowned for his gun-slinging ways! The late 9th makes sense.
FB Darius Slayton ~ His ADP is currently about 108th, late 9th Round, the 43rd Ranked WideOut.
Sleeper! Slayton, who I was very high on, a year ago, despite his 5th Round Pedigree, still doesn't get the Love that he deserves, even after an outstanding Rookie campaign. He finished 33rd as a Rookie, yet is projected to go 43rd as a Sophomore, even though the guy slinging'm the rock ~ Jones ~ is projected to ascend from 23rd to 16th!!! Idiocy. Mind you, the likelihood of the Giants having severe problems at Offensive Tackle puts a damper on Slayton's short-term upside, because his deep threat potential will likely suffer, from Jones not having enough time to get the ball to'm. Even so, Slayton is a rapidly rising Star. I strongly suspect that he goes something like 72/1080/10 this year, which'd project to around 15th, 3rd/4th Round.
XB Diontae Johnson ~ His ADP is currently 111th, early 10th Round, the 45th Ranked WideOut.
Sleeper! Big Ben isn't as familiar with Johnson, a Rookie last year, as he is with Schuster, so I expect a migration of Market Share, there, but Johnson is young and explosive, finished 2019 with a flourish, and is poised for a run at 1000 Yards. I don't know if he'll get there, mind you, with all that competition for Targets, but he's clearly on the rise. As I see it, he's looking like he's likely to rack it up to the extent of the Top 30/35 or so, which is 7th Round territory, a nice rise.
FB Sammy Watkins ~ His ADP is currently about 117th, late 10th Round, 48th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. I expect'm to fade to 3rd WideOut and 4th Target, but there's enough Market Share for everyone in Kansas City.
FB Jerry Jeudy ~ His ADP is currently about 120th, late 10th Round, 49th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. Jeudy, Jeudy, Jeudy. I'm a big Fan of Jeudy, a Rookie who has all the Agility of a crippled snail, but tremendous Route Running Refinement. He should develop into a productive WideOut quickly, just not a dominant one.
XB Sterling Shepherd ~ His ADP is currently about 121st, early 11th Round, the 49th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. I like Shepherd very much, but he suffered multiple concussions, last year, so I attribute substantial risk to his profile. Mind you, if he plays 16 Games and Jones is running for his life, he prove to be a tremendous bargain!
XB Golden Tate ~ His ADP is currently about 123rd, early 11th Round, the 50th Ranked WideOut.
SemiSleeper. I've always liked Tate, and he finished 41st, last year, even despite missing 5 Games, 4 to a PED suspension. He's getting up there, having just turned 32, and he's got competition for Targets. Even so, projecting his as a 4th or 5th WideOut seems like a severe Discount, to me. Tate gets the job done, and he's a good bet to produce, regardless of circumstances, so long as he doesn't miss much time. To me, he's got a 60/800/6 feel to'm, which'd place'm more like 3rd/4th than 4th/5th, projecting to the 8th Round or so. Not spectacular, but a moderate bargain, in my perception, worth picking up.
FB Henry Ruggs ~ His ADP is currently about #123, early 11th Round, the 50th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. I'm tempted to break out the red ink on this one, because Ruggs, while very talented, is not very developed, and is therefore susceptible to statistically faceplanting, his Rookie year, as he painfully takes it through the mental gears of figuring this whole thing out...But he instantly becomes the most talented WideOut on the Raiders, and, while they're potentially facing a transitional year between QuarterBacks, Coach Gruden is a great Offensive mind, and while he's exhibited a lot of rust in turning things around, over the last few years, the Raiders are showing a sign or two that they might be about to start turning a profit, so to speak. That possibility makes Ruggs worth a Late Rounder.
XE Justin Jefferson ~ His current ADP is about 123rd, early 11th Round, the 50th Ranked WideOut.
SemiSleeper. It's perfectly reasonable that a Rookie is being drafted so low, but Jefferson is not your average Rookie. And I don't mean his 1st Round Pedigree. I mean that his Game ~ especially his Route Running ~ is extraordinarily well developed. His Speed is mediocre, but his Agility is outstanding, which is enough, with his Routing, to translate into his having a far better chance than usual of making an early and lasting impact. I put his value at about 40th, translating to the 8th or 9th Round.
XE NKeal Harry ~ His ADP is about 130th, late Round 11.
Par Value for a guy who might make a few bucks if he's healthy, but not a Pick I would make. Drafting Harry in the 1st Round a year ago was a foolish mistake, and I said so at the time. I do not have great expectations for'm.
FB Jalen Reagor ~ His ADP is currently about 133rd, early 12th Round, the 51st Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. Reagor is highly talented and tough, and should produce as a Rookie, but with all the competition for Targets in Philly, and particularly with the Offensive Line likely to have issues, 50th or so seems like a reasonable projection for'm.
SE Preston Williams ~ His ADP is currently about #135 or so, early 12th Round.
Sell!! Williams is supremely talented, and could very well crank out an 80/1200/12 Line...in 2021! Me, I always bet against a Player producing anything close to his capability, coming back from a late season ACL, like Williams is. And that's before factoring in the chaos that is likely to ensue in Miami during the opening month or 3 of the season. I've been preaching about Recovery Years for a long, long time: 18 months. 18 months is generally what it takes, give or take a few months, after a major injury like an ACL, before a Player completely regains his former form. Most people don't realize that. Somebody is going to snap Williams up in the late Rounds, and it'll likely be a wasted Pick. Don't let it be you.
FB Anthony Miller ~ His current ADP is about 138th, mid 12th Round, the 53rd Ranked WideOut.
SuperDooper DeeperSleeper!! I called Miller Highly Overrated when the Bears drafted'm in the 2nd Round, in 2018, giving him a 4th Round Grade, which I stand by, in terms of what his services were worth, then. But my Spidey Sense is telling me that Miller's about to launch. I foresee a big run to the 75/1000/8 range, which would likely be a Top 20 finish, warranting a Pick somewhere in the late 4th or early 5th Round range, and therefore a phenomenal bargain in the 12th Round!
XE Robby Anderson ~ His current ADP is about 143rd, late 12th Round, the 54th Ranked WideOut.
SemiSleeper. Interesting confabulation, here: Anderson's skill set is perfect for a transitional team that needs to build from the inside out, so to speak: focus on Moving The Chains. But he's been miscast, for 4 years, as a Zoomer, a Run Like Hell And I'll Throw You The Ball guy. Coach Rhule knows his real skills, though, as they worked together at Temple. Anderson could statistically flame out, mind you, with all the competition for Targets, hence his 54th Ranking, despite finishing 38th, last campaign. I like'm as a Late Round Flier, though, one who Coach Rhule targeted for his new team.
FB John Ross ~ His ADP is currently about 150th, middle 13th Round, the 58th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. He has genuine #1 or #2 WideOut potential, and opened up 2019 at a blistering pace, before injuries yet again sidelined'm. But his future is uncertain, as the Bengals spend a 2nd Round on Tee Higgins and declined Ross's 5th Year Option. More to the point, his Market Share is uncertain. He may very well win the #3 gig and have a spectacular season, rending his current ADP one of the year's great bargains, and I am higher on this Offense than just about anybody, so I'll not be the guy to discourage anyone wanting to pluck'm a round or three earlier. But it seems to me that the most likely outcome is Ross time-sharing with Higgins, and that that, combined with the risk of yet another injury, renders his prospects more along the lines of a Hail Mary ~ a Lottery Ticket worth a small Bet, but not much more than that.
SE Tyrell Williams ~ His ADP has recently surged to about #150, middle 13th, Round, the 57th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. I haven't found anything to ascribe that recent surge to, other than an article written about'm. I like Williams, but he has consistently been the Boom or Bust, Binge or Purge, All or Nothing Long Range Bomber, and there's certainly nothing about the current QuarterBack situation to warrant wagerin anything more than a Late Round Flier on'm!
SB Jamison Crowder ~ His ADP is about #150, middle 13th Round.
Sleeper! Wow, I did not expect to be using that term on anyone in this Offense, but there it is! Crowder is ranked about 60th, but I can easily foresee'm producing at a Top 30 level, now that he's looking at his 2nd year in the Jets Offense. That's 6th/7th Round territory! Mind you, you don't want to draft him that early, the idea being of course to collect bargains!
SE Alshon Jeffrey ~ His ADP is currently about 154th, late 13th Round, the 55th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. Jeffrey certainly has the potential to dramatically outperform the 55th slot, which is of course a speculative average of the wide spread of slots that he's drawing, this Summer, but he has to stay on the Field to do so. Therein, as they say, lies the rub, as Jeffrey has been plagued by injuries. That, thick competition, and the injuries to the O Line incur a lot of Risk.
SE Breshad Perriman ~ His ADP is about #160, early 14th Round.
Sleeper! I have never been a fan of Perriman, who's made me look utterly brilliant, for calling him Highly OverRated, back in 2015, when he went in the 1st Round, I called'm a 3rd/4th Rounder, and flamed out, beautifully! But late in his 5th season, the lights suddenly flipped on, and Perriman closed with 500 yards in 5 games! Mind you: That was with the legendarily sloppy slinger, Jameis Winston, ripping it to'm, careless Route Running meeting careless Passing, also featuring blistering Speed meeting Rocket Arm! I'll believe that Perriman has learned to consistently run accurate, disciplined Routes when he does it with a real QuarterBack...but that ain't Arnold! Mind you: I would not bet very aggressively on Perriman, but if his late season eruption translates into the future, you'll want to be aboard!
FB Curtis Samuel ~ His current ADP is about 162nd, mid 14th Round, the 60th Ranked WideOut.
Sell!! 2019 was supposed to be Samuel's BreakOut Year. Not so much. And word around the campfire's that he's still not putting it together. He's very talented, and people develop in different ways, but there's a ton of competition for Targets, hereabouts.
XB DeSean Jackson ~ His ADP is currently about 165th, late 14th Round, the 59th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. All 3 WideOuts here have the potential to significantly outperform their ADPs, especially with XB Marquis Goodwin opting out, and if Jackson stays healthy, this time, he could be a steal, all right. But as with Jeffrey, sustainable health is a question, because Jackson missed most'f last year, and because he's 34. There's also the same issues as with all Philly WideOuts, those being the heavy competition for Targets, and, especially with a Zoomer like Jackson, the O Line.
FB James Washington ~ His ADP is currently about 165th, late 14th Round, the 71st Ranked WideOut!
Super Dooper Deeper Sleeper! Washington finished 2019 even stronger than Johnson, heads into his 3rd year, and has played with Big Ben. He has a strong shot at 1000 yards or more, as I see it, which'd put'm, depending on how many TouchDowns he pulls in, around the Top 20/25 or so, which projects all the way into the 5th Round, baby!
SE Michael Pittman ~ His ADP is currently about 165th, middle 14th Round, the 66th Ranked WideOut.
Sleeper! I'm actually quite impressed that The Market has this guy drafted. Pittman is joined a team whose Offense is very Run-oriented, but nevertheless in eager need of Receivers who can reliably Move The Chains, as there is nobody established, after Hilton. And Pittman, despite being a Rookie, is both exceptionally well developed, in terms of Route Running and having reliable Hands, but he is an enormous, quick, slippery, and powerful Target.
PS > Usually, I link directly to the Player Page, but Pittman doesn't have one. Why? Because his name links, instead, to that of the Michael Pittman who used to play HalfBack for the Cardinals and Buccaneers. And, yes, that's his Father, thus illustrating, with impeccable timing, my earlier point about narcissist clowns, pathetically and parasitically trying to live, vicariously, through their Sons, by dint of naming them after themselves. Get your own Life, Dad!
XE Allen Lazzard ~ His current ADP is about 180th, late 15th Round, the 60th Ranked WideOut.
SuperSleeper!! Lazzard has reportedly emerged as the clear #2 behind Adams. I've always liked'm, and I like this Offense. I can easily foresee a 60/800/8 kind of season, which'd place'm close to the Top 30 or so, and that's 7th Round territory!
FB Dede WestBrook ~ His ADP is currently about #182, early 16th Round, the 67th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. With WestBrook having finished 49th, last year, he too is evidently perceived to be at risk of seeing a decline in production, either to the chaos of a new Offense, or to loss of Market Share and Targets. I feel that in his case, too, the concern is warranted, as WestBrook may very well lose Market Share to Laviska Shenault, the Rookie Slot End.
SE Corey Davis ~ His ADP is currently about #200 ~ Undrafted Free Agent ~ the 73rd Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. I've always liked Davis, a far better FootBall Player than Fantasy Player. He's a strong Possession Receiver, and he's an excellent Blocker, and does the things that help win Championships ~ real Championships. But on a team that emphasizes the Run, and where Brown has dramatically eclipsed him as the #1 WideOut, Davis seems unlikely to rebound very emphatically from 2019's statistical slide unless Brown gets hurt. I'd love on my team, though.
XE Laviska Shenault ~ Speaking of Shenault, his ADP is currently about #207 ~ UFA ~ the 70th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. I'm a huge Fan of Shenault, and I'd pounce on'm if Chark or WestBrook get hurt. But because Shenault is a Slot End, whose specialties are Moving The Chains and Red Zone Targets, which'll put him in direct competition with Eifert, Oliver, and WestBrook, all more established than him, I'd hold off on spending a Draft Pick on'm, this year.
SE Larry FitzGerald ~ His current ADP is about 210th, UFA, the 71st Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. FitzGerald is awesome, but I imagine that he'll just be keeping Defenses honest, at this point.
FB Brandon Aiyuk ~ His current ADP is about 210th, UFA, the 71st Ranked WideOut.
Sleeper! I'd be more excited if he wasn't banged up, but banged up, he is. Aiyuk is a Rookie, but a refined one, and my money's on him to lead all Miner WideOuts in Yards, this year. However, that is not the highest praise, as the Miners wisely focus on Moving The Chains, not slinging it. I have'm as about the 40-45th best Bet, so I'd give'm a late 9th Round Value.
XB Danny Amendola ~ His current ADP is about 276th, UFA, the 90th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. Terrific Role Player, but I wouldn't spend a Pick on'm.
SE Christian Conley ~ His ADP is currently about #280 ~ UFA ~ the 92nd Ranked WideOut.
Sleeper!! How rude! Conley finished #39, last year! Clearly, The Market expects a cataclysmic Production Plunge, and for a substantial reduction in Market Share, presumably at the hands of Shenault. That is certainly a very possible outcome, considering that Conley'd never produced anywhere near what he did in 2019, previously. But it seems to me that a lot'f folks are forgetting that Conley is very, very talented, and with excellent Intangibles. 2019 may well prove to be a Career Year. But it may also very well prove to be a BreakOut Year. With Coach Gruden running the show, I'm anticipating a productive year for this Offense, and it's not out'f the realm that Conley racks up 1000 Yards or more! He might even supplant Chark as the #1 Jaguar WideOut, and score in the Top 20! There is real Late Round Steal potential!
XE Marques Valdes Scantling ~ His current ADP is about 300th, UFA, the 97th Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. Worth keeping an eye on, perhaps, but he's always been pretty raw.
XB Steven Sims ~ His ADP is currently about #300, UFA, the 96th Ranked WideOut.
SuperDooper DeeperSleeper!! Sims quietly emerged down the stretch, last year, racking up 36 Targets over the last 4 weeks, and producing a 20/230/4 line! The clear #2 behind McLaurin, Sims seems to me poised to at least be a good Bet to rack up 66/800/5 numbers, or even push for 1000 Yards, and yet he's going UFA! That's a Top 40 finish, at least, and quite possibly considerably more! That translates to good value in the 9th Round, much less as a UFA! A huge steal in the late Rounds.
XB Adam Humphries ~ His ADP is currently about #312 ~ UFA ~ the 103rd Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. How very strange that Humphries would pass on playing for Tom Brady, as he reportedly did, last year, to sign with Tennessee, which gave him $36 Million for 4 years and then evidently forgot he was on the team. Humphries, seemingly ascendant and poised for 1000 Yards, disappeared. I am an enormous Fan of Coach Michael Vrabel, but baffled by this move. Perhaps things will be clearer, a year, hence. But I wouldn't bet a Draft Pick on that.