Par Value. After his entirely foreseeable statistical retrenchment, following his statistically epic 2018 campaign, Mahomes is pegged to bounce back buoyantly, and bounce back buoyantly, I believe he will! I don't foresee a return to his 2018 50 TouchDown level ~ though I'm not ruling it out! ~ but Mahomes does have a 35-40 TouchDown air about'm, I must say, which would probably translate to being the top scoring QuarterBack in Fantasy FootBall. I sense that last year's top scoring Fantasy QuarterBack, Lamar Jackson, is due for a retrenchment of his own, as Defenses catch up to him, rendering Mahomes all the more attractive a candidate to resume his place as King of Fantasy Mountain.
QB Lamar Jackson ~ His Average Draft Position is currently about 16th, early 2nd Round.
Par Value. That's #2, behind Patrick Mahomes, of course. Frankly, I strongly suspect that his standing as #2, even as last year's #1, is shakier than might be expected, just due to the natural tendency for things to revert to the mean. However, there doesn't seem to be an obvious choice as to who might take the #2 spot. I and anyone who studies these things expected Mahomes to take a huge statistical step backward, last year, which he did, but The Market seems to be anticipating a return to 2018's statistical glory, which I do not. All of which is to say that Jackson could repeat, quite conceivably, as Statistical Champion! Or he could slide to 8th, as Defense figure'm out! The Ravens have several prospectively productive young WideOuts, though, so even if Jackson runs less, he may more that make up for it!
QB Dakota Prescott ~ His Average Draft Position is currently about #49, early 5th Round, the 5th Ranked QuarterBack.
Blue Chip Beast Bargain! Prescott, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, and DeShaun Watson seem to form a pretty distinct 2nd Tier of Fantasy QuarterBacks, with Prescott coming in 3rd. As I see it, though, he is clearly the best of the bunch. For starters, he scored 2nd overall, last year, with Patrick Mahomes struggling with injuries. And his Weaponry is improved, this year, at Tight End and 3rd WideOut. Wilson's terrific, and so is Watson, but Wilson's upside has peaked, Watson just inexplicably lost DeAndre Hopkins, and Murray gaining the latter isn't enough to bring him to Prescott's level.
QB Russell Wilson ~ His current Average Draft Position is about 56th, mid 5th Round, the 4th Ranked QuarterBack.
Par Value. The Hawks are resurgent, and Wilson is a Star in'is prime!
QB Kyler Murray ~ His current Average Draft Position is about 57th, late 5th Round, the 6th Ranked QuarterBack.
Par Value. Murray finished 7th as a Rookie! And now he's got DeAndre Hopkins to throw it to! DC's'll have Tape on'm, now, of course, but Murray will also be a year older, wiser, and more comfortable. Could be an exciting year!
QB DeShaun Watson ~ His Average Draft Position is currently about 57th, late 5th Round, the 6th Ranked QuarterBack.
Par Value. Watson was the 4th highest scorer at QuarterBack, last year, so his ranking 6th clearly means that The Market's anticipating less production in the wake of the inexplicable DeAndre Hopkins Trade. Hopkins having accounted for 150 Targets, last year, more than twice that of anyone else, such a slide seems pretty warranted. I'll add, though, that with Watson's continued evolution, which I expect, with the acquisition ~ although an outrageously costly one! ~ of Laremy Tunsil to man Left Tackle, and with several accomplished receiving options on the team, Watson could actually quite conceivably improve on his 2019 numbers. It wouldn't shock me, in the slightest, though his ADP makes sense.
QB Drew Brees ~ His current Average Draft Position is about 69th, late 6th Round, the 7th Ranked QuarterBack.
Par Value. Old Man Brees, the 2nd Best QuarterBack of the first 20 years of this Millennium ~ yes, a better QuarterBack than the precious Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers, Fantasy FootBall legends ~ is still also an outstanding Fantasy FootBall option, beyond being a tremendous real life QuarterBack. The Saints are poised for a Super Bowl run, and Brees is the man.
QB Matthew Ryan ~ His current Average Draft Position is about 76th, early 7th Round, the 10th Ranked QuarterBack.
Par Value. He finished 11th, last year. Same Offense. Same Players. Productive.
QB Tom Brady ~ His current Average Draft Position is about 75th, early 7th Round, the 9th Ranked QuarterBack.
Par Value. The Greatest Ever exhibited an ocean of statistical signs of finally dropping off the edge of the proverbial cliff, at the age of 756, last year: his 2nd half, which I, a Patriots Fan, watched, one game at a time, was apocalyptic. And, yet...Watching him throw, I did not perceive any short-arming, just a guy repeatedly throwing it away, in lieu of our having any Receivers...This impression has actually been recently reinforced ~ Camp Hype noted, of course, mind you ~ by WingBack #3, the remarkable Cameron Brate, and by The Greatest Ever WingBack, Sir Robert Gronkowski, Esquire. In any case, anyone who believes that Tom Brady built his Legend on FirePower is a drooling idiot. He is to QuarterBacks what Sir Gregory "Mad Ox" Maddux is to Pitchers, only more so. And now he's got an excellent Coaching staff, an excellent Offensive Line, and a sea of outstanding Receiving options. The Best Ever is poised to add another chapter or two to his Legend. Here's hoping that he does so.
QB Joshua Allen ~ His Average Draft Position is about 75th, about the beginning of the 7th Round.
OverRated! Allen has of course been a far better Fantasy FootBall QuarterBack than actual QuarterBack, and he's entering his 3rd year ~ often a breakout year ~ behind what could be a dominant Offensive Line, on top of which he's just had a genuine Star in Stefon Diggs added to his arsenal, the acquisition of the services of whom improves the prospects of everybody in that Offense...But I believe that there is a very real risk of an Investment in Joshua Allen going to zero. I compared Allen to the likes of Paxton Lynch when he was drafted in 2018, and so far he's been proving me right. It's entirely possible that he loses his job to Jake Fromm, at some point, hence the danger of his value vaporizing.
QB Aaron Rodgers ~ His current Average Draft Position is about 78th, mid 7th Round, the 11th Ranked QuarterBack.
Blue Chip Beast Bargain! I have little regard for Aaron Rodgers, who is both a jackass and laughably overrated, mostly by idiots who can't tell the difference between Fantasy FootBall and real FootBall, but he is an extraordinary Fantasy FootBall QuarterBack who was adjusting to a new Offense, last year. I believe that this perennial Top 5 finisher has a strong chance of pushing to do so, yet again. I'd bump'm to around the 8th or 9th best Bet, so maybe a Round earlier in Value.
QB Carson Wentz ~ His Average Draft Position is currently about 84th, late 7th Round, the 12th Ranked QuarterBack.
Par Value. Wentz is of course a rising Star, if he can stay healthy, he finished 9th, last year, with scraps at WideOut, and Philly has aggressively sought to improve his Weaponry. Nevertheless, I concur with his dropping a few slots. First off, his health profile, while improving, is still a little suspect. More importantly, he's lost both his Right Guard and Left Tackle to injury. Philadelphia's Offense is likely to have a rocky start to the year, and might struggle for most or all of its course.
QB Baker Mayfield ~ His Average Draft Position is currently 100th, middle of the 9th Round, 13th Ranked QuarterBack.
Par Value. I was a staunch advocate of Mayfield, well before the Draft, when he was projected in the 4th or 5th Round, back in the Autumn of 2017, giving him a 1st Round Grade before anyone on the Planet ~ except Baker, himself, of course.
Currently, however, he's on a career trajectory of another QuarterBack who I gave a 1st Round Grade to when absolutely nobody else was, who rose all the way to the 1st Round...and then proved to make me look not nearly as shrewd as I previously had: Blake Bortles! Mayfield had a horrible Sophomore campaign, and is suddenly rapidly approaching a breaking point of no return. His interview with Rex Ryan, where he reportedly admitted that he needs to stop getting distracted by arguments with people outside the team, was moderately encouraging, because that's exactly what the problem has been. Mayfield's not the type to shine people on, so if he said it, he meant it. But whether or not that will ultimately translate to the intensive work needed to develop as a QuarterBack, I'll believe it when I see it. He's been exhibiting a mentality like that of a WideOut, not that of a QuarterBack, and that does not inspire my faith. I love his passionate intensity, but his Chip on the Shoulder mentality has been overplayed, and has outlived its value.
He spends way too much time reacting to what people say and think about him ~ or what he imagines they do ~ and not enough time ~ it seems to me ~ in the tape room, studying, analyzing, and drilling, drilling, drilling.
Time to grow up, kid, and fast, before you've blown the opportunity of a lifetime.
This Offense is poised for an enormous step forward, and Mayfield is it's QuarterBack. Will the coming season prove that he's truly awoken, and has started applying his extraordinary mental and physical skills to the full extend that his team deserves? I do not know. But the possibility is worth betting on, because Mayfield has the potential for Greatness.
QB Matthew Stafford ~ His current Average Draft Position is about 101st, mid 9th Round, the 13th Ranked QuarterBack.
Sleeper! Stafford's Market Value is actually quite higher than I expected, considering his unspectacular resume, but it seems that The Market has quite shrewdly cottoned onto his strong half-season of 2019, and wisely extrapolated that, despite a limited history of success, Stafford finally has an Offensive Coordinator, in Darrell Bevell, with the wisdom to unleash Stafford's considerable Talent, after a decade in the league! I foresee Stafford making a run at a Top 5 performance, possibly even producing at a Top 3 level, and certainly one of the Top 10 best Bets. I'm thinking that he's a 6th or 7th Round value.
QB Daniel Jones ~ His Average Draft Position is currently about 105th, late 9th Round, the 16th Ranked QuarterBack.
Overrated! Jones finished 23rd, last year, as a Rookie. A jump to 16th in his Sophomore year is perfectly reasonable, I believe. It's just that I don't belong to that school of thought. Full disclosure: I panned Jones harshly, a year ago, and am still not yet convinced that he's got The Right Stuff to succeed. But he would not be the first QuarterBack that I missed by a mile on!
Of even greater concern to me is that Nate "Universal" Solder opted out of the season, thus thrusting Rookie Andrew Thomas into the Left Tackle role and Reserve Matthew Peart into the starting Right Tackle role. An Offensive Line which I had already projected as mediocre could very well prove to be horrible. Jones has several good Weapons to work with, so the 16th spot projection is justifiable, but I believe that there is also a very low floor, here, and considerable danger of realizing it!
QB Jared Goff ~ His current Average Draft Position is about 120th, late 10th Round, the 18th Ranked QuarterBack.
Sell!!! That Offensive Line is collapsing around him...and Goff ain't so good with collapsing Offensive Lines! The Rams are very well coached, and may turn it all around faster than most expect of'm, but 2020 is the year when the Bill comes due for the Trades, the Expenses, and the general mortaging of the future that they indulged in, in order to make their recent run. The Offensive Line has born maybe the worst of it. Goff has regressed in spectacular fashion over the last 1.5 seasons, looking signifcantly less like that MVP candidate that he was, and a lot more like Blake Bortles. Yikes. Late Round Flier.
QB Benjamin Roethlisberger ~ His Average Draft Position is currently 130th, late 11th Round, 18th ranked QuarterBack.
SuperDooper DeeperSleeper!! Caveat: A risky one, as Roethlisberger just turned 38 ~ the traditional Line of Death for QuarterBacks ~ and doesn't appear to take care'f himself anywhere nearly as well as Sir Thomas Brady.
And he was certainly awful, early on, last year, before getting "injured." However, that awfulness early on was before the crucial development of James Washington and Diontae Johnson. The concern, of course, is that LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown have left town, and that Big Ben's early 2019 is a true indicator of what we should expect of him.
That, and the fact that he is now not only officially an old man, but is trying to come back from last year's "injury", would seem to explain his perfectly justifiable low Ranking. And these concerns are indeed perfectly valid.
I think that he's an excellent gamble to take, though, because if he's healthy and his arm hasn't fallen off ~ hey, the year off may've rejuvenated him ~ then I believe he is perfectly positioned to take advantage of what is generally considered to be a sad stable of WideOuts, but which I believe to be an exciting stable of WideOuts: Washington and Johnson are both poised for classic BreakOut Years, which should open up things dramatically for JuJu Smith Schuster, and these 3 young, dynamic WideOuts are joined, in turn, not only by the equally dynamic Rookie, Chase Claypool, but by the dangerous and, dare I say it, dynamic WingBack, Eric Ebron! They've got a solid Offensive Line, Big Ben's healthy, and they are loaded with young, seasoned, and dynamic WideOuts! Big Ben could easily rocket all the way to the Top 3 in Fantasy FootBall Production. That would justify a 3rd Round Pick, baby! Again: there's risk, here, for sure, but the odds are strongly in his favor, and as a late 11th Rounder, he could quite possibly prove to be the greatest steal of this entire Draft!
QB Ryan Tannehill ~ His Average Draft Position is currently about #135, early 12th Round, the 18th Ranked QuarterBack.
Par Value. Tannehill finished 22nd last year, so his projection might seem, on the face of it, rather optimistic, but the truth is that he only started 12 Games. Had he kept up that pace for 16, he would've finished 6th! Ryan Tannehill!! Tannehill produced an utterly absurd 9.6 YPA. Amazing what playing behind an excellent Offensive Line will do for you!
It'll be interesting, though, to see how well he responds to the wrinkles he's going to run into, now that Defenses have had a year of Game Tape of him in Tennessee's System to study. Beginner's Luck is a real thing, based on knowing the other guy's tendencies without him knowing yours. Tannehill's projection, all things considered, would seem to reflect The Market's expectation that he's more likely than not to come down to Earth, as well as Tennessee's emphasis on the Running Game and its dearth of Receiving talent. There is of course the chance that 2019 will prove to be Tannehill's BreakOut Year, and that he'll be going all Drew Brees on us, from here on out. But 18th is about right, for now.
QB Kirk Cousins ~ His current Average Draft Position is about #140, mid 12th Round, the 22nd Ranked QuarterBack.
SemiSleeper! Cousins has seen his Market Value take a hit because of the wise choice to dump Stephon Diggs, but I bet more on Offenses and Intangibles than on Talent, and I believe that the Vikings have brought in outstanding Offensive minds in Offensive Coordinator Gary Kubiak and Line Coach Rick Dennison, and a moderately talented but extremely proficient replacement for Diggs in Rookie Slot End Justin Jefferson. I rank Cousins at about #15, the 9th or 10th Round.
QB Jimmy Garoppolo ~ His current Average Draft Position is about 143rd, late 12th Round, the 22nd Ranked QuarterBack.
Par Value. That's a big step back from last year's Super Bowl 14th place finish, but appropriate, I think, as all his best Weapons are beat up, to various degrees, which augers a slow start and a sluggish season.
QB Drew Lock ~ His Average Draft Position is currently about 150th, early 13th Round, the 22nd Ranked QuarterBack.
Par Value. I like the Broncos Offensive Line, and there're enough weapons to succeed, if Lock hits, and hit, he very well might. Patrick Shurmur's the new Offensive Coordinator, and he's done well, developing QuarterBacks, most recently Daniel Jones with the Giants, and, previously, Casey Keenum with the Vikings. So while I wasn't high on Lock, neither was I on Jones, for that matter, and Lock did well, down the stretch, last year. Having said all that, there's also the chance that he flops, now that opposing DC's have tape on'm, so a Late Round Lottery Ticket seems to be just about right!
Cameron Newton ~ His Average Draft Position is about 150th, middle 13th Round.
Par Value. I believe that Newton will probably win the job, but that that is far from a given, as Coach Belichick values mental and instinctive command, not Newton's strongest traits, far more than athletic ability. It is also uncertain how athletic he remains after an unhealthy 2019 campaign. Furthermore, while my Spidey Sense tells me that there's a very strong possibility that Coach Belichick and Offensive Coordinator Joshua McDaniels are poised to integrate the Option QuarterBack into their Offense, which would obviously and dramatically affect Newton's Fantasy Value to its benefit, uncertainty abounds! Newton could prove to be unprecedentedly focused, win the job, and run an Option Offense masterfully, finishing in the top 3 of Fantasy QuarterBacks...or he could get cut in July! High Ceiling, Low Floor!
QB Joseph Burrow ~ His Average Draft Position is currently about 160th, early 14th Round, 24th QuarterBack.
Sleeper!! There is certainly every possibility that the Bengals will field the most God-awful pair of Offensive Tackles in this Galaxy, and that they'll get Burrow blown up in their first Drive of the season...Having acknowledged that, I will say, as anyone who read my Bengals Prospectus knows, that I have sense that the Bengals have positioned themselves for a sudden and spectacular turnaround, following last year's 2-14 horror show. And if Burrow, with Head Coach and QuarterBack Guru ~ and noteworthy General and President! ~ Zachary Taylor's assistance, rapidly develops his outstanding quick-strike talents in this Offense, the weaponry is there for an extraordinary Rookie campaign.
I could see'm pushing the Top 10, and'd say that he's worth an 10th Rounder.
Tua Tagovailoa ~ His Average Draft Position is currently about 160th or so, middle 14th Round.
Blue Light Special! He could win the job right out'f camp, or, conversely, there's always the possibility that he doesn't play a Snap, this year, but that's obviously a remote one. The Fish didn't draft'm to sit, and FitzPatrick's pretty streaky, so he'll probably give them an excuse, sooner or later, and that'll be that. And that scenario could actually play out nicely for Tagovailoa, as the Offensive Line, coming off a horrific 2019 campaign, is likely to continue the horror show, at the beginning, as they sort things out ~ a nightmare scenario for a Rookie QuarterBack ~ yet quite conceivably be quite effective by the middle of the season, once roles are determined and everyone's had a few Games with which to synchronize. This Offense is likely to be shaky, early on, but could very well come on strong, mid-season or so. The backfield's pretty weak, too, which plays to Tagovailoa's chances of being the focal point, and lighting it up!
QB Samuel Darnold ~ His Average Draft Position is about #165, middle 14th Round.
Par Value. He's about 25th, and that sounds reasonable. Frankly, though, I wouldn't spend a Pick at all on'm. As I wrote on the Prospectus, above, I still don't know if Darnold's going to develop into an NFL caliber Starter. I love the raw material, physically, mentally, and mechanically, but he was very raw when he got drafted in 2018, and is still developing. The Offensive Line and the Weaponry are marginal, as well. The only angles in his favor are that he's young, so we have probably not seen his peak, yet, and that he's entering his 2nd year under QuarterBack Guru, Adam Gase.
QB Gardner Minshew ~ His Average Draft Position is currently #169, early 15th Round, the 27th Ranked QuarterBack.
Sleeper! Got nothing but love for Minshew Magic! Mind you, he's a far better FootBall Player than Fantasy Player. However, his new Offensive Coordinator is Jay Gruden, who first instantly turned Andy Dalton into a competitive QuarterBack in Cincinnati ~ a condition which did not last beyond his tenure, there! ~ and then went to Washington and instantly transformed Kirk Cousins into an effective QuarterBack. Minshew could surprise some people, this year!
QB Phillip Rivers ~ His Average Draft Position is currently about 147th, early 13th Round, the 21st Ranked QuarterBack.
Par Value. Whether or not Rivers's efficacy has permanently fallen off of a cliff, now that he's 38 ~ the notorious Point of No Return for every QuarterBack not named Tom Brady or that bum that Rivers once replaced, Drew Brees ~ is a matter of debate. But even if he recovers his mojo for another year or three, the Colts Offense is designed...to grind.
QB Derek Carr ~ His Average Draft Position is currently about #168, late 14th Round, the 28th Ranked QuarterBack.
Blue Light Special! With Marcus Mariota being signed for a ton of Money to be a "back up", it's obvious that Carr, who I was never high on, mind you, is slated for replacement...And yet...Carr is, in my eyes, emerging as a Dark Horse not only to unexpectedly keep his job, but to excel in Gruden's system. Definitely worth a risky flier in the Late Rounds.
QB Teddy Bridgewater ~ His current Average Draft Position is 182nd, early 16th Round, the 26th Ranked QuarterBack.
Par Value. I believe that Bridgewater, Coach Rhule and his crew, and the entire Panther team is flying under the radar, and will shock the Hell out'f most people at some point in the next 30 months, maybe the next 4. But The Plague, and the American Government's cataclysmically idiotic response to it, is likely to prove disruptive, if not outright destructive, to new Coaches attempting to implement new Systems. Bridgewater is vastly underrated as a QuarterBack, but in Fantasy FootBall terms, probably just about right as a the Late Round Flier that The Market sees him being: Slow start, strong finish, I think.
QB Dwayne Haskins ~ His Average Draft Position is currently about #256, UFA, the 32nd Ranked QuarterBack.
Par Value. I'm a moderately larger Fan of Haskins than most ~ including his Head Coach, I strongly suspect! ~ but Alexander Smith is more talented than Haskins, and if Smith is actually healthy, he'll likely soon take the job.
QB Nicholas Foles ~ His current Average Draft Position is about 289th, UFA, the 33rd Ranked QuarterBack.
QB Mitchell Trubisky ~ His current ADP is about 300th, UFA, the 34th Ranked QuarterBack.
Par Value. Both Foles and Trubisky have proven to be generally mediocre QuarterBacks, so there's a distinct possibility that whoever begins the season as the Starter will not end it...or may do both, but with a big break in the middle!
QB Alexander Smith ~ His ADP is currently about #464 ~ In The Wind!
Sleeper! The Predators ~ my other affectionate term for The Athletes Formerly Knows as RedSkins ~ are of course highly under stress and duress, right now, with low, abysmal expectations...But I believe that Coach Rivera is going to turn this team around rapidly. And while mediocrity abounds on Offense, the coaching staff is very strong. Best case scenario, mind you, I would project a short pass, ball control Offense that doesn't rack up wild Fantasy numbers. But there's enough talent to work with on that Offensive Line and among their Weaponry, that Smith, should he win the job, would be in a position to produce.
Tyrod Taylor ~ UFA
Justin Herbert ~ UFA
Par Value for both. The Offensive Line could prove greatly improved from last year's horror show, but will almost certainly take time to gel, and as for QuarterBack, itself, the most likely scenario is that Taylor starts the year and Herbert finishes it, making neither an attractive prospect for drafting. However, both are worth keeping an eye out for, as the Bolts are clearly going for an Option Offense, and 3 of the top 4 scoring Fantasy QuarterBacks, last year, were Option QuarterBacks. Additionally, they've got several legit weapons in the Passing Game. Once the Offensive Line settles in ~ that is, if the Offensive Line settles in ~ and the QuarterBack is determined, he could prove to be a very high scorer.