NFL Draft Scouting Reports

Shameless Patrick Mahomes Boast!!!

3/14/2017

* 03/14/17 Mid-Blizzard Update: Woot!! I gotta crow a bit, so You've Been Warned!!

Back in November, when I wrote'm up, Patrick Mahomes was tracking as a UFA!! Undrafted Free Agent!!

His raw FirePower was almost universally dismissed by the Scouting World and Media, in light of his FirePower effectively sitting at Mediocre because'f his Mechanics, and in light of his Experience being of course in a classic Easy Read/Quick Strike ShotGun Offense, which've destroyed many a QuarterBack Prospect's Prospects...but they're coming around!!

I'm reading more and more Praise for young Mahomes...and I couldn't possibly feel more Boastful!!

Ahhhh...The Timeless Wisdom of Fanatical Yankee!!

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Patrick Mahomes Scouting Report ~ 2017 NFL Draft

11/23/2016

3 Comments

* Updated 04/30/17 *

QuarterBack ~ Patrick Mahomes ~ Texas Tech Red Raiders ~ 6020/225

Regarding QuarterBacks

It has been fashionable, since Fran Tarkenton's time, to imagine that Scrambling QuarterBacks are the Wave of The Future and are going to revolutionize the Game, disrupt the competitive LandScape, and render Pocket Passers obsolete.

But I believe not only that Pocket Passing remains the Heart & Soul of successful QuarterBacking, but that the capacity of Speed QuarterBacks to master Pocket Passing can be and often is crippled by the Siren Song of Scrambling: A QuarterBack who has always had that "out" is far less likely to develop the skills that really matter.

Power QuarterBacks ~ The Men with the Golden Arms ~ are equally susceptible to falling Prey to the seductive allure of their own physical Talent: The more powerful their Cannons, the more likely I believe it is that they persistently depend upon that crutch as a Get Out Of Jail Card, and thus fail to develop a more comprehensive Skill Set.

And thus I perceive a Great Irony, one that continues, astonishingly, to elude most: The more explosive a Scrambler that a QuarterBack is, or the more powerful an Arm he boasts, the less likely that he is to achieve Greatness.

Conversely, it's the boring guys who consistently Move The Chains that give you the best Chance to win.

After New Year's Day, when The Only Games That Really Matter are played, History has been relentlessly savage to Power QuarterBacks and Speed QuarterBacks who failed to develop their Games: Once the weaker Teams have been eliminated, the PlayOff Defenses have invariably proven far too much for The Unprepared.

And if you're not prepared to compete after New Year's Day, why play at all??

In consideration of these thoughts, which, like many of my thoughts, fly in the face of what is amusingly considered to be Conventional Wisdom, this is how I break down the Criteria that I focus on, when evaluating QuarterBacks:

1 ~ Processing Speed
2 ~ Precision
3 ~ Pocket Presence
4 ~ FirePower

Processing Speed or Diagnostic Velocity is about how quickly and effectively one Reads & Reacts to the Rapidly Roiling Tactical LandScape. It's crucial at all 22 Positions, but utterly vital for a QuarterBack to succeed...or to even survive. Reading Coverages, working through Progressions, and selecting the best Receiving or Running Option.

Precision speaks above all to Mechanics: A QuarterBack's consistency with his Stance, his Set Up, and his Delivery. I refer to consistent Accuracy in the Short & Intermediate Zones, where the best Offenses all make their Bread & Butter. In breaking it down, I'm looking at Timing, Touch, and Trajectory: Leading Receivers to DayLight.

Pocket Presence & Poise Under Pressure is about Poise, or how one's Processing Speed and Precision stand up Under Pressure, and about one's Temporal & Spatial Instincts in navigating an often chaotic Pocket.

FirePower is a Category that I value, though not as much as others. I refer to Velocity and to DownField Precision, which I don't consider as crucial to Success as Short & Intermediate Precision. DownField Precision makes for tremendous HighLight Footage, but it's Short & Intermediate Precision that Moves The Chains and wins Championships.

Please note, if you will: I don't list 40 Speed among crucial Attributes at all.

Broken down into SubCategories, it'd go something like this:

Processing Speed

* Please Note: This is entirely about how rapidly the QuarterBack scans the Field and makes successful Decisions.
* Many College Offenses feature simple Offenses that make this challenging to evaluate.
* It is, nevertheless, far and away the most crucial Aspect of QuarterBacking.

Precision

* Accuracy ~ Placement that maximizes the Receiver's Advantage and minimizes that of the Defender.
* Timing ~ Being temporally In Sync with the Receiver. The Ball arriving precisely when the Receiver does.
* Touch ~ The right Speed for the right Play. Only throwing FastBalls when FastBalls are warranted.
* Trajectory ~ Being spatially In Sync with the Receiver ~ enabling him to catch the Ball In Stride.

Pocket Presence

* Processing Speed Under Pressure.
* Precision Under Pressure.
* Spatial & Temporal Instincts.

FirePower

* Velocity, irregardless of where he's throwing it: How fast is'is FastBall?
* DownField Precision ~ can he through the Bomb accurately?

Patrick Mahomes ~ Scouting Report

Processing Speed: Impressive, which is very impressive, indeed, considering not only that the Red Raiders employ a classic Easy Read/Quick Strike ShotGun Offense ~ which does absolutely nothing to develop a QuarterBack's capacity to rapidly read and react effectively to Coverages and Pressure ~ but that he's only been a Full Time QuarterBack for one Year, having only just this Spring retired from BaseBall!! Needless to say, being a Full Time College Student and splitting what Hours are left between two Sports is a gigantic Hindrance to investing the Time & Training & Study that's needed to develop the kind of Diagnostic Acuity that prospectively translates into Processing Speed and Field Vision.

When his Primary Read is covered and Mahomes needs to improvise, he's generally very cool and calm about it, and he often engages the whole Range of the Field and all'f'is WideOuts in Working his Progressions.

To've attained that level at this point, in that Offense with its dearth of Development of it, and with only the one Year dedicated to FootBall, strongly suggests to me that Mahomes possesses fundamental Processing Speed far beyond that which has translated to the FootBall Field so far...And it strongly suggests to me that, in order to've attained that level despite those crippling constraints, he possesses Drive the equal of his remarkable Intelligence.

I'll be very surprised if his already impressive Processing Speed doesn't improve immensely.

* April Update: Exceptional, but I'm gonna stipulate that I feel like I'm looking at a combination of extraordinary Processing Speed but only effective ~ just above average ~ Diagnostic Acuity. In EarthSpeak: He makes Decisions with blistering Speed and impressive Instincts, but is riddled with Foolishness. Yeah: Brett Favre, Jay Cutler, and that ilk. Oy.

Precision: Impressive, and potentially outstanding. His Mechanics need a great deal of Work, but Mahomes has only been a Full Time FootBall Player for one Year, having just this Spring given up BaseBall ~ his Father pitched in the Majors for many Years ~ and his Improvement this Year, prior to a Shoulder Injury in late September, was amazing.

When he reluctantly announced his Retirement from BaseBall this Spring, Mahomes noted that the divergent throwing motions had been detrimental to developing his Mechanics, and that's easy to believe, because Mahomes's Completion Percentage, which'd improved from 56.8 % in 2014 to 63.5% in 2015, which wasn't really all that impressive in an Easy Read/Quick Strike ShotGun Offense such as the Red Raiders manage ~ simply erupted in 2016. Before that Shoulder Injury slowed'm down, Mahomes was rocking along at 72.9%. Air Raid Offense or not, that's preposterous.

Despite those inconsistent and occasionally horrific Mechanics, Mahomes consistently exhibits impressive Timing, Touch, and Trajectory, even out'f some motions that are damned hard to watch. And now that this driven, intelligent kid is in a position to dedicate all'f'is Time and Energy to FootBall, there's a very strong Chance, given the right Coaching, that enormous mechanical Improvement is in his near Future, with possibly enormous Benefits.

* April Update: Gonna back that off to Competitive, but also add that he's got tremendous Potential in this aspect of things. He's inconsistent, and his Mechanics are doubly so, but his Instincts for Timing & Trajectory are intriguing.

Pocket Presence & Poise Under Pressure: Mediocre but potentially excellent. Mahomes has put a few hideous Mistakes on Tape, but that is of course a product of his Offense's lack of Training in Working Progressions, which translates into lacking Improvisational Experience. And he's showed unmistakable Improvement over the course of the Year.

Based on the September Game against the Arizona State Sun Devils, I'd've given'm a Marginal Grade, maybe flat out awful, as he repeatedly Ducked & Ran in the face of Pressure, but 6 weeks later, during late October's wild and wonderful ShootOut with Baker MayField and the Oklahoma Sooners, he far more consistently kept his eyes DownField, far more consistently stayed in the Pocket when it was conceivable to do so, and far more often made good Decisions.

* April Update: Same: Mediocre but potentially excellent. Balls of Steel, and the Processing Speed not only to excel but to dominate, but far too inclined to Tuck & Run and see what The Buffet might offer. That doesn't win.

FirePower: Mediocre, but here, too, there seems to be Potential. A Friend posted a Video of Mahomes throwing the Ball 65 Yards, this Summer, so he's evidently got the raw Power!! He just needs to develop those horrible Mechanics!!

And his Velocity is smoking.

* April Update: Impressive, and potentially amazing. The Arm Strength is there, but he needs a lot'f Work on'is Mechanics.

Patrick Mahomes ~ Prospectus

NFL Evaluators are terrified of Air Raid QuarterBack Prospects, and justifiably so!! The Casualty Rate is astronomic, which is no Surprise considering the crippling developmental effects of Easy Read/Quick Strike ShotGun Offenses, which notoriously provide virtually no Training for Drop Back & Work Through Progressions QuarterBacking.

These guys arrive literally Years behind in Training. Most perish.

But I believe that Patrick Mahomes stands an unusually strong Chance of not only surviving but of thriving at the next level. His Diagnostic Acuity and Processing Speed are growing by leaps and bounds since he gave up BaseBall to dedicate himself to FootBall this Spring, and that speaks of course not only to'is Intelligence, but to'is Drive.

Yes!! Trajectory!!

Trajectory > A Philosophical Formula that calculates a Prospect's Potential & Risk, based on perceptions of Talent, Intelligence, Passion, and Work Ethic: Talent x Intelligence x Drive = Potential/Risk.

I believe that Patrick Mahomes has exhibited a tremendous fundamental level of Processing Speed far beyond his current ~ and rapidly improving ~ level, and I believe that he has also exhibited extraordinary levels of Intelligence and Drive.

In short: I am highly confident that he's gonna Do The Work...and that it's gonna pay off.

It'll take Time and Training to convert'm into an NFL QuarterBack after Years wasted in the Air Raid...But far, far less Time, I believe, than is usually the case. And I believe that the Results will be potentially amazing.

He needs all sorts of Work on'is Mechanics, too, but at the end of the Day what I see with Patrick Mahomes is the Potential for high levels of Precision, far better Pocket Presence, potentially deadly DownField Precision to match his outstanding Velocity, and, most importantly of all, the Processing Speed to command an Offense at a very high level.

...and I see a very strong Probability of his realizing all of his extraordinary Potential.

Thank you so very much, Draft BreakDown, without whom my Work would be virtually possible.

* 03/14/17 Mid-Blizzard Update: Woot!! I gotta crow a bit, so You've Been Warned!!

Back in November, when I wrote'm up, Patrick Mahomes was tracking as a UFA!! Undrafted Free Agent!!

His raw FirePower was almost universally dismissed by the Scouting World and Media, in light of his FirePower effectively sitting at Mediocre because'f his Mechanics, and in light of his Experience being of course in a classic Easy Read/Quick Strike ShotGun Offense, which've destroyed many a QuarterBack Prospect's Prospects...but they're coming around!!

I'm reading more and more Praise for young Mahomes...and I couldn't possibly feel more Boastful!!

Ahhhh...The Timeless Wisdom of Fanatical Yankee!!

* April Update: Welcome to Understanding the Potential Greatness of Patrick Mahomes, NFL!!!

I'd be the last guy to tell you that Mahomes is a Sure Thing...He's got a lot of that Brett Favre JackAssery in'm, and I'd be the last guy to sell that...But, unlike that despicable Ass, Favre, Patrick Mahomes seems to me to have all sorts of Maturity, of Intelligence, Drive, and Focus, and indeed enough to overcome the horrifically long Odds that Historical Precedence's imposed on Perpetrators of the notorious Air Raid Offense Genre that Mahomes has been party to, lately.

Yeah, usually, I'm an emphatic Shorter of QuarterBack Prospects with great Arms and Air Raid Resumes ~ two enormous Red Flags in my Book ~ but Mahomes strikes me as a young Man who possesses precisely the kind'f Intelligence and Drive that it's gonna take to overcome the enormous Obstacles lying in front'f'm...and translate his enormous Talents, physical and intellectual, into extraordinary Success at the next level...So I'm Going Long on this kid!!

Yank Rank: Beast ~ Super Dooper Deeper

Sleeper!!

Market Value

UFA!!

Yankee Grade

Top 10!!

Please do Note: This and all Evaluations issued by this Site are produced by a ludicrously unqualified Amateur, privy to not even the tiniest fraction of Coach's Tape, Scouting Expertise, Face to Face Interviewing, Experience, or Inside Information enjoyed by the Professionals. As such, anything put forth is certainly misinformed, euphonious, derivative Tripe, and should be rejected out'f hand and indeed shunned by all men and women of Good Will!! I'm trying to discern Power, Agility, Combat Skills, and far more abstract, esoteric Concepts such as Processing Speed and Motor, and I'm trying to do so based almost entirely on a fascinating fusion of Tape, Combine Numbers, and Pro Days, while trying to attenuate my findings based on Allowances for Competition Level, Scheme, Concept, Context, and, above all: Trajectory!!

This is not is even remotely a Complaint, mind you, but rather a Warning: Caveat Emptor!!

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Shameless Patrick Mahomes Boast!!!

Patrick Mahomes Scouting Report ~ 2017 NFL Draft

QuarterBack ~ Patrick Mahomes ~ Texas Tech Red Raiders ~ 6020/225

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