Please note: All Evaluations are based on Standard Scoring + 12 Team/16 Round Serpentine Drafts!
QuarterBacks
QB Ryan Tannehill ~ His Average Draft Position is currently about #135, early 12th Round, the 18th Ranked QuarterBack.
Par Value. Tannehill finished 22nd last year, so his projection might seem, on the face of it, rather optimistic, but the truth is that he only started 12 Games. Had he kept up that pace for 16, he would've finished 6th! Ryan Tannehill!! Tannehill produced an utterly absurd 9.6 YPA. Amazing what playing behind an excellent Offensive Line will do for you!
It'll be interesting, though, to see how well he responds to the wrinkles he's going to run into, now that Defenses have had a year of Game Tape of him in Tennessee's System to study. Beginner's Luck is a real thing, based on knowing the other guy's tendencies without him knowing yours. Tannehill's projection, all things considered, would seem to reflect The Market's expectation that he's more likely than not to come down to Earth, as well as Tennessee's emphasis on the Running Game and its dearth of Receiving talent. There is of course the chance that 2019 will prove to be Tannehill's BreakOut Year, and that he'll be going all Drew Brees on us, from here on out. But 18th is about right, for now.
Par Value. Tannehill finished 22nd last year, so his projection might seem, on the face of it, rather optimistic, but the truth is that he only started 12 Games. Had he kept up that pace for 16, he would've finished 6th! Ryan Tannehill!! Tannehill produced an utterly absurd 9.6 YPA. Amazing what playing behind an excellent Offensive Line will do for you!
It'll be interesting, though, to see how well he responds to the wrinkles he's going to run into, now that Defenses have had a year of Game Tape of him in Tennessee's System to study. Beginner's Luck is a real thing, based on knowing the other guy's tendencies without him knowing yours. Tannehill's projection, all things considered, would seem to reflect The Market's expectation that he's more likely than not to come down to Earth, as well as Tennessee's emphasis on the Running Game and its dearth of Receiving talent. There is of course the chance that 2019 will prove to be Tannehill's BreakOut Year, and that he'll be going all Drew Brees on us, from here on out. But 18th is about right, for now.
WingBacks
WB Jonnu Smith ~ His ADP is currently about #150, middle 13th Round, the 17th Ranked WingBack.
Sleeper!! I was a big fan of Smith during the 2017 Draft, and he seems to me to be ready to launch. Delanie Walker, a God of mine, has moved on, so Smith now gets the gig all to himself. He got a head start on that, last year, starting the last 10 Games after Walker got hurt, but produced random results. In fact, he finished 17th, so The Market projecting him to duplicate that in 16 Starts is obviously pessimistic, and that mystifies me. More to the point, though, is that he's both an explosive weapon and a savage Blocker, so he'll rarely need to come off the field, and there's not really anybody else compelling on the roster. The Titans prioritize the Run, but in terms of Fantasy production, that's more a problem for WideOuts, not WingBacks. Smith is a strong candidate for a Top 10 finish, an 8th or 9th Round Value.
Sleeper!! I was a big fan of Smith during the 2017 Draft, and he seems to me to be ready to launch. Delanie Walker, a God of mine, has moved on, so Smith now gets the gig all to himself. He got a head start on that, last year, starting the last 10 Games after Walker got hurt, but produced random results. In fact, he finished 17th, so The Market projecting him to duplicate that in 16 Starts is obviously pessimistic, and that mystifies me. More to the point, though, is that he's both an explosive weapon and a savage Blocker, so he'll rarely need to come off the field, and there's not really anybody else compelling on the roster. The Titans prioritize the Run, but in terms of Fantasy production, that's more a problem for WideOuts, not WingBacks. Smith is a strong candidate for a Top 10 finish, an 8th or 9th Round Value.
WideOuts
SE Arthur Juan Brown ~ His ADP is currently about #33, late 3rd Round, the 12th Ranked WideOut.
Sleeper!! So let me get this right: Brown finishes 9th, does so as a Rookie, does so as a guy who didn't even Start until the season was well under way...and The Market projects'm to slide to 12th or 13th?? Uh uh. I get the whole Reversion to the Mean thing, and how Brown's preposterous 20 YPC is unsustainable...But this is where The Market misses the mark.
Brown is an outlier. My study of History tells me that, while that 20 YPC surely is unsustainable, Brown's late-season rampage, where he average over 100 Yards/Game over the last 6 weeks, with 5 TouchDowns during that time, is a legitimate indicator of what to expect of'm, going forward. He was a Rookie, Ladies & Laddies. He will evolve, rapidly. Targets will compensate for a more rational YPC number. Running Offense or not, Brown is already producing like the SuperStar that everyone smart enough to see it is going to be calling him, very, very soon. Brown has genuine and immediate Top 5 potential, 1350/14 kind of potential, yes, even in that Offense. Early 2nd Round.
SE Corey Davis ~ His ADP is currently about #200 ~ Undrafted Free Agent ~ the 73rd Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. I've always liked Davis, a far better FootBall Player than Fantasy Player. He's a strong Possession Receiver, and he's an excellent Blocker, and does the things that help win Championships ~ real Championships. But on a team that emphasizes the Run, and where Brown has dramatically eclipsed him as the #1 WideOut, Davis seems unlikely to rebound very emphatically from 2019's statistical slide unless Brown gets hurt. I'd love on my team, though.
XB Adam Humphries ~ His ADP is currently about #312 ~ UFA ~ the 103rd Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. How very strange that Humphries would pass on playing for Tom Brady, as he reportedly did, last year, to sign with Tennessee, which gave him $36 Million for 4 years and then evidently forgot he was on the team. Humphries, seemingly ascendant and poised for 1000 Yards, disappeared. I am an enormous Fan of Coach Michael Vrabel, but baffled by this move. Perhaps things will be clearer, a year, hence. But I wouldn't bet a Draft Pick on that.
Sleeper!! So let me get this right: Brown finishes 9th, does so as a Rookie, does so as a guy who didn't even Start until the season was well under way...and The Market projects'm to slide to 12th or 13th?? Uh uh. I get the whole Reversion to the Mean thing, and how Brown's preposterous 20 YPC is unsustainable...But this is where The Market misses the mark.
Brown is an outlier. My study of History tells me that, while that 20 YPC surely is unsustainable, Brown's late-season rampage, where he average over 100 Yards/Game over the last 6 weeks, with 5 TouchDowns during that time, is a legitimate indicator of what to expect of'm, going forward. He was a Rookie, Ladies & Laddies. He will evolve, rapidly. Targets will compensate for a more rational YPC number. Running Offense or not, Brown is already producing like the SuperStar that everyone smart enough to see it is going to be calling him, very, very soon. Brown has genuine and immediate Top 5 potential, 1350/14 kind of potential, yes, even in that Offense. Early 2nd Round.
SE Corey Davis ~ His ADP is currently about #200 ~ Undrafted Free Agent ~ the 73rd Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. I've always liked Davis, a far better FootBall Player than Fantasy Player. He's a strong Possession Receiver, and he's an excellent Blocker, and does the things that help win Championships ~ real Championships. But on a team that emphasizes the Run, and where Brown has dramatically eclipsed him as the #1 WideOut, Davis seems unlikely to rebound very emphatically from 2019's statistical slide unless Brown gets hurt. I'd love on my team, though.
XB Adam Humphries ~ His ADP is currently about #312 ~ UFA ~ the 103rd Ranked WideOut.
Par Value. How very strange that Humphries would pass on playing for Tom Brady, as he reportedly did, last year, to sign with Tennessee, which gave him $36 Million for 4 years and then evidently forgot he was on the team. Humphries, seemingly ascendant and poised for 1000 Yards, disappeared. I am an enormous Fan of Coach Michael Vrabel, but baffled by this move. Perhaps things will be clearer, a year, hence. But I wouldn't bet a Draft Pick on that.
HalfBacks
PB Derrick Henry ~ His ADP is currently about #5, middle 1st Round, the 5th Ranked HalfBack.
Par Value. This is a tremendous Offensive Line, and responsible for far more of Henry's success than it's given credit for. As long as they're still this caliber, and Henry's got plenty of tread left ~ and I reckon that he should be good for 4 more years, as long as the Titans continue to use his skills at the currently reasonable level ~ he should keep rocking!
SB Darrynton Evans ~ His ADP is currently about #198 ~ UFA ~ about the 60th Ranked HalfBack.
Par Value. That's pretty straight forward. And it goes without saying, I think, that he's worth a Late Round Stash, because Evans has some juice, and if Henry misses a few Games, that Line will reap Evans a ton of buzz.
Par Value. This is a tremendous Offensive Line, and responsible for far more of Henry's success than it's given credit for. As long as they're still this caliber, and Henry's got plenty of tread left ~ and I reckon that he should be good for 4 more years, as long as the Titans continue to use his skills at the currently reasonable level ~ he should keep rocking!
SB Darrynton Evans ~ His ADP is currently about #198 ~ UFA ~ about the 60th Ranked HalfBack.
Par Value. That's pretty straight forward. And it goes without saying, I think, that he's worth a Late Round Stash, because Evans has some juice, and if Henry misses a few Games, that Line will reap Evans a ton of buzz.
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